Source: Developed at Royal Dutch Shell in the 1970s, notably by Pierre Wack, building on earlier work by Herman Kahn
Imagine several plausible futures rather than predicting one, then prepare responses for each. It helps you act early when signals show which future is emerging.
When to use it
Use it when your role or industry faces uncertainty, such as automation or a pending restructure.
How to apply it
Identify the two biggest uncertainties affecting your career over the next three years.
Combine them into four distinct scenarios.
Describe what your role would look like in each scenario.
List actions that would help you in most or all scenarios and start them now.
Choose early warning signs for each scenario and review them every few months.
Tip: Scenarios are not forecasts; the value is in preparing actions before you need them.