When to use it
Use it before choosing an approach, when you are unsure whether the problem needs analysis, experiments or immediate action.
How to apply it
- Describe the situation and the decision you face in a few sentences.
- Decide whether cause and effect is obvious, knowable through expert analysis, only visible in hindsight, or not visible at all.
- In clear situations, apply established best practice.
- In complicated situations, bring in expertise and analyse options before acting.
- In complex situations, run small safe-to-fail experiments and amplify what works.
- In chaotic situations, act first to stabilise, then reassess which domain you are in.
Tip: A common mistake is treating complex problems as merely complicated and over-planning them.